PED Suspensions Coming

[Sessh]

Dirty Players, Sloppy Chemists or both? Another twist in MLB's PED Problem

It?s an explanation Victor Conte, former founder of BALCO whose doping clientele included some of the greatest athletes in the world, has too often heard, along with the rest of us.

Still, something about this is strange. Colabello is at least the fourth major leaguer busted for that drug since last September, but yet, Conte struggles with the concept that Turinabol is making a comeback.

Conte instead wonders if this is the latest wave of athletes utilizing inferior chemists.

Find a good one - as 14 of the 16 players ensared in the 2013 Biogenesis scandal taught us - and you can avoid detection by baseball?s drug testers.

?If you?re smart, you?ll never get caught,?? Conte told USA TODAY Sports. ?The research shows that if you go home from the ballpark, and take a fast-acting testosterone, it will peak at 1 in the morning, get down before the 4-to-1 TE ratio by 4 in the morning, and by the time you get to the ballpark, you can?t test positive. That?s what (Alex Rodriguez) and all of those guys in Biogenesis were doing.

?So to get caught now, you?ve got to be pretty dumb. And to use Turinabol, that?s dumber than dumb. Nobody with any brains are using Turinabol. That?s just stupidity.?

..

Lest we forget, MLB?s investigation into an Indiana anti-aging clinic continues, after it was made famous by Peyton Manning and ultimately ensnared free agent catcher Taylor Teagarden, who was suspended for 80 games. Teagarden never tested positive for a banned substance.

In time, perhaps in the next collective bargaining agreement, the punishment for first-time offenders will be an entire season, and not 80 games. Off-season tests should continue to rise, too: 528 tests were administered during the winter of 2014, compared to 7,630 tests during the 2015 season.

?If baseball really wants to catch these guys,?? Conte said, ?the offseason is when the testers need to be putting the hook and line in the water, because that?s when the players are biting. If you don?t do it then, it?s like grabbing your fishing pole, putting it up against a tree, putting on a straw hat, and taking a nap.??

Major League Baseball and the players union have made dramatic strides this past decade. They proclaim, correctly, that they have the most stringent drug-testing program in North American team sports.

Yet, it takes only one mind-boggling success story, almost too good to be true, or perhaps even a faulty dishwasher, to subtly remind us that we can?t still can?t trust everything we see.

Baseball's drug program will never be perfect, but how close can it get?

"Every time a guy gets popped who didn't test positive, it's kind of like, 'Why are we even going through this?'" Verlander said in an interview with FOX Sports.

"If you want to cheat, there is a window to do it. Guys are finding ways around the system. It's pretty evident, pretty well-known that the people who are making these illegal substances are ahead of the testers."

...

"Do I think guys are still out there doing this? Yes," Nationals right-hander Max Scherzer said. "I really don't think the number is that high. But at the end of the day, you never know. This is a dark cloud within the game. It's something that is never going to be revealed.

"That's why as players we always have to be open to changes to the Joint Drug Agreement. If anything (more) can be done to detect illegal substances, we have to be open to that."

Added Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw: "If there was a type of testing that guaranteed every person that used PEDs would be caught, I would be all for it. I don't think the problem is the length of the suspension, but more the improbability of being caught."

...

People in baseball ask: Outside of further increasing the frequency of tests, what else can the sport do?

"We ban every substance that we know of," said baseball's chief legal officer, Dan Halem. "We use the best laboratories. We test for every substance for which there is a test. We drug-test players frequently, randomly, mixing the times of the day so there is no discernible pattern.

"There is not much more you can do from a drug-testing perspective, which is why we have a whole department of investigations, a whole program designed to catch players who are violating the program and don't test positive. Biogenesis obviously was the best example of that. You need both to have an effective drug program."

...

"We recognize that the suppliers will always work hard to stay ahead of the testing. That's why we work hard with scientific experts whose sole function is to help us design -- and re-design -- a program that is on the cutting edge.

"Are we assured to catch every violation? No, that's not realistic. Can I look players in the eye and say with confidence that we leave no stone unturned? Without question."

One problem with testing is that many PEDs do not remain detectable in a player's body for long. A regular user likely will be caught if he is tested, say, five times a year. With a sporadic user, it's more luck of the draw.

Players recognize that testing can accomplish only so much.

"Are they ever going to be able to stay out in front of science and some of these guys who are making it their life's journey to stay in front of drug testing? I don't know if it's possible," Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday said.

"I'd love to make sure there is nobody doing anything outside the lines whatsoever. I just don't know how realistic it is outside of doing blood testing on a day-to-day basis, which isn't realistic . . . I don't know how much blood testing we are willing to do before it gets absurd."

Scherzer, too, sounded a realistic tone.

"As players, we're always aware that the science to cheat will always be ahead of the science to detect," Scherzer said. "We understand that there is always going to be an incentive to cheat. We just hope that the deterrent to cheat is greater than the incentive."

Is it?

"That's the million-dollar question."

Scherzer runs the equation in his head: How long of a suspension would be necessary to deter all players from using PEDs? How can baseball adjust its penalties to remove the incentive for all 100 percent?

But Scherzer knows -- all players know -- that some will cheat no matter how substantial the risk to their reputations, to their careers.

"I don't care if you're banned for life, people will still do it and try to get away with it," the Blue Jays' Donaldson said.

As with the war on drugs, I don't think stiffer penalties will have any effect whatsoever. If people really want to make an impact, you have to put a dent in the main incentive; money. The huge amounts of money players get for doing things that PED's help you do more of is the main incentive and as long as there is a demand, someone will be there to supply. Increasing penalties for recreational drugs did not do a thing to deter use and neither will stiffer penalties in MLB. This is an outdated approach that has been proven time and time again to be completely ineffective. I believe the #1 reason people play professional sports is for the money and anything they have to do to get more of it, they will do. Even if they get popped, they still have their money.

Anyway, I just stumbled on to these articles on MLBTR and thought they were interesting reads.

[Going Underground]

Friend told me it used to be over 70% but now around 25% and different stuff.

[maybenxtyr]

I agree about the penalties. The money in most cases is already made. There really isn't a penalty that can prevent usage unless they figure out a way to take away earnings. Even public shaming doesn't deter players (booing and such).

[Sessh]

Friend told me it used to be over 70% but now around 25% and different stuff.

If it is as easy to get around the program as these articles suggest, then it may be much higher than 25%. At the very least, it shows that the testing program really isn't working all that well if you have to be "dumb" to

get caught.

[Sessh]

See, there's also the fact that PED's have been in baseball for over 100 years. The MLB testing program is a much younger entity and has a lot of catching up to do. The black market for PED's is well established and new

suppliers will pop up as fast or faster than others will be caught. I just don't see how this will stop so long as there is money to be made and demand for the products.

[DrungoHazewood]

As with the war on drugs, I don't think stiffer penalties will have any effect whatsoever. If people really want to make an impact, you have to put a dent in the main incentive; money. The huge amounts of money players get for doing things that PED's help you do more of is the main incentive and as long as there is a demand, someone will be there to supply. Increasing penalties for recreational drugs did not do a thing to deter use and neither will stiffer penalties in MLB. This is an outdated approach that has been proven time and time again to be completely ineffective. I believe the #1 reason people play professional sports is for the money and anything they have to do to get more of it, they will do. Even if they get popped, they still have their money.

The hardest thing will be marginal major leaguers. You could devise punitive measures that keep established players from using, mostly. Like a three-year ban and voiding of contract for a 2nd offense.

But how do you stop guys who're making $10-30k a year in the minors? If the take PEDs and make the majors it's a ~20x increase in pay. Massive raise. Far, far more than they could make outside the game. If they're caught, so what? Barely worse off than making a pittance playing for Canton-Akron. I don't know how you fix that, the incentives are too great.

[Can_of_corn]

The hardest thing will be marginal major leaguers. You could devise punitive measures that keep established players from using, mostly. Like a three-year ban and voiding of contract for a 2nd offense.

But how do you stop guys who're making $10-30k a year in the minors? If the take PEDs and make the majors it's a ~20x increase in pay. Massive raise. Far, far more than they could make outside the game. If they're caught, so what? Barely worse off than making a pittance playing for Canton-Akron. I don't know how you fix that, the incentives are too great.

Or the guy that was a big leaguer, so has money to burn, but isn't currently under the control of MLB.

What is to stop someone pitching for say, the Sugarland Skeeters, from undergoing an intensive regimen of PEDs in an effort to regain a few MPH on his fastball?

[DrungoHazewood]

Or the guy that was a big leaguer, so has money to burn, but isn't currently under the control of MLB.

What is to stop someone pitching for say, the Sugarland Skeeters, from undergoing an intensive regimen of PEDs in an effort to regain a few MPH on his fastball?

You mean the indy leagues don't have World Anti-Doping Agency approved PED testing programs?

Also, has there ever been a case of someone getting popped for PEDs and just going to the NBP or KBO or Taiwan? Or Mexico? You couldn't come back without serving your suspension, but if you're an Eddie Gamboa level player you don't care.

[El Gordo]

The hardest thing will be marginal major leaguers. You could devise punitive measures that keep established players from using, mostly. Like a three-year ban and voiding of contract for a 2nd offense.

But how do you stop guys who're making $10-30k a year in the minors? If the take PEDs and make the majors it's a ~20x increase in pay. Massive raise. Far, far more than they could make outside the game. If they're caught, so what? Barely worse off than making a pittance playing for Canton-Akron. I don't know how you fix that, the incentives are too great.

1M $ fine?

[DrungoHazewood]

1M $ fine?

I don't know... would that be meaningful to a 20-something guy who might not gross that much in 20 years if he doesn't make the majors? A player's take might be "who cares about a $1M fine, soon I'll be making that every month in the Majors."

[sevastras]

The hardest thing will be marginal major leaguers. You could devise punitive measures that keep established players from using, mostly. Like a three-year ban and voiding of contract for a 2nd offense.

But how do you stop guys who're making $10-30k a year in the minors? If the take PEDs and make the majors it's a ~20x increase in pay. Massive raise. Far, far more than they could make outside the game. If they're caught, so what? Barely worse off than making a pittance playing for Canton-Akron. I don't know how you fix that, the incentives are too great.

I would argue that the Bonds, Arod, Sosa, Clemens of the game are just as likely to use. The reason they are, they are some of the greats of baseball and want to be legends of the game. They have the money for the best and they have the ego to think they will never get caught.

The two biggest factors in use are desperation and narcissism.

Find desperate players and players who are narcissistic and test the hell out of those players at all hours of the night. Personally, I dont care if they cheat and arent testing positive. They out smart the system and gain and edge, good for them, but know if you do get caught you will be punished. Unless you play in another sport that doesnt care, Lebron and Manning.

[El Gordo]

I don't know... would that be meaningful to a 20-something guy who might not gross that much in 20 years if he doesn't make the majors? A player's take might be "who cares about a $1M fine, soon I'll be making that every month in the Majors."

He has to pay it off regardless. Like tuition loans.

[srock]

The hardest thing will be marginal major leaguers. You could devise punitive measures that keep established players from using, mostly. Like a three-year ban and voiding of contract for a 2nd offense.

But how do you stop guys who're making $10-30k a year in the minors? If the take PEDs and make the majors it's a ~20x increase in pay. Massive raise. Far, far more than they could make outside the game. If they're caught, so what? Barely worse off than making a pittance playing for Canton-Akron. I don't know how you fix that, the incentives are too great.

I think you just don't try to stop it. If they use PEDS to make the majors, shame on them.

If they keep using to stay in MLB, they will most likely get caught before signing a big contract.

Not many guys will play well enough without the PEDS to stay in the show.

[Three Run Homer]

How about allowing tests at time time and any place, including your home or the team hotel at 3 AM or 8 AM? It would disrupt family life and sleep but everyone would be subject to the same rules, and it would address Conte's theory that you can take some substances after you get home from a game, and they will be out of your system by the time you get to the park the next day.

[Sessh]

The hardest thing will be marginal major leaguers. You could devise punitive measures that keep established players from using, mostly. Like a three-year ban and voiding of contract for a 2nd offense.

But how do you stop guys who're making $10-30k a year in the minors? If the take PEDs and make the majors it's a ~20x increase in pay. Massive raise. Far, far more than they could make outside the game. If they're caught, so what? Barely worse off than making a pittance playing for Canton-Akron. I don't know how you fix that, the incentives are too great.

Good points, but I don't think the increased penalty you propose would do anything except motivate players to do a better job of not getting caught which I guess comes down to finding a better chemist.